Pentagon planners are preparing for a war with Iran that could cost $3 trillion, according to officials who spoke to The Intercept, a price tag that would exceed the combined costs of the Iraq and Afghanistan wars while Congress has held zero public hearings on authorization or funding.
"My kids' kids, and probably their kids, are going to be paying for this," one official briefed on the war planning told The Intercept. The admission comes as American families already face gas prices above $5.80 per gallon due to the conflict's disruption of global oil markets, adding roughly $300 to average monthly household fuel costs.
The $3 trillion projection represents more than the entire federal budget for education, healthcare, and infrastructure combined. It would add approximately $9,000 in future tax obligations for every American citizen, including newborns. Yet the authorization for military action has proceeded without the constitutional requirement for congressional approval, continuing a pattern of executive war-making that has defined American foreign policy since 2001.
Military budget analysts note that the $3 trillion figure likely represents a conservative estimate. The Iraq War's initial projection of $50-60 billion ultimately ballooned to over $2 trillion when veterans' care and interest on war debt were included. Iran, with three times Iraq's population and a significantly more advanced military infrastructure, presents a far more complex and costly engagement.
The financial burden would fall on a generation already struggling with student debt, unaffordable housing, and stagnant wages. A 25-year-old entering the workforce today would pay war taxes until retirement, while their children would inherit both the debt and the regional instability that multi-decade military occupations typically produce. This intergenerational wealth transfer from working families to defense contractors represents one of the largest in American history.
Defense contractors have already seen stock prices surge since hostilities with Iran escalated. Lockheed Martin, Raytheon, and General Dynamics have collectively added $47 billion in market value in just six weeks. The same companies spent $58 million lobbying Congress last year, with much of that focused on Iran policy and Middle East military authorizations.
The war's costs extend beyond direct military spending. Economists project that sustained conflict in the Persian Gulf could keep oil prices above $100 per barrel for years, functioning as a massive regressive tax on American workers who depend on vehicles for their livelihoods. Rural and exurban communities, where public transit is nonexistent and commutes are longest, would bear a disproportionate burden.
Congressional leaders from both parties have avoided public hearings on war authorization, despite polls showing 67% of Americans oppose military action against Iran without explicit congressional approval. The last formal declaration of war by Congress was in 1942. Every military action since — Korea, Vietnam, Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya, Syria — has proceeded through executive authority and creative interpretations of dated authorizations.
Veterans' organizations have begun warning about the long-term care obligations that would accompany a major ground conflict. The Veterans Administration already faces a $280 billion backlog in disability claims from Iraq and Afghanistan veterans. A war with Iran would likely double or triple that obligation, creating a fiscal crisis that would persist until the 2080s.
State and local governments would also face cascading costs. National Guard deployments pull teachers, EMTs, and police officers from communities for extended periods. The federal government rarely compensates municipalities for these personnel losses, creating hidden costs that appear in reduced services and higher local taxes years after the conflict begins.
The White House has not responded to questions about long-term cost projections or how the administration plans to pay for a conflict that budget analysts say would require either massive new borrowing or the first major tax increase since 1993. Previous administrations have funded wars through deficit spending, effectively making future taxpayers subsidize current military actions.
What makes the $3 trillion projection particularly stark is its contrast with rejected domestic spending proposals. Congress last year declined to approve $1.7 trillion for infrastructure over ten years, calling it fiscally irresponsible. The child tax credit expansion that lifted 3 million children out of poverty was allowed to expire over concerns about its $100 billion annual cost — less than two weeks of projected Iran war spending.
The officials who spoke to The Intercept emphasized that the $3 trillion figure assumes a "best-case scenario" with no major escalation, no activation of mutual defense treaties, and no targeting of oil infrastructure that could trigger a global recession. Each of those scenarios would add trillions more to the final bill, creating what one Pentagon planner called "a fiscal black hole that would fundamentally alter American society."
Three generations of Americans are about to inherit a war they didn't vote for, can't afford, and increasingly don't support. The last opportunity for Congress to exercise its constitutional war powers may have already passed, leaving taxpayers from 2026 to 2100 to fund a conflict that began without their consent. As one official told The Intercept, the war's architects won't be around to pay the bill — or explain why it was worth the cost.
